Local-currency stablecoins will capture more growth than dollars through 2030. Current FX costs make cross-border payments through dollar stablecoins uncompetitive in emerging markets. Speaker argues for matching currency denominators on-ramps to zero out hedging and recycling costs. Etherfuse and AirTM implementing this approach.
Stablecoin market cap will grow 10x by 2030, but the speaker argues the growth will come from local currencies, not primarily dollars. Today's consensus assumes the on-chain market will replicate dollar dominance seen in global trade. Instead, the speaker expects a reversion to the mean: 50-50 split between dollar and non-dollar denominated value, matching off-chain finance. Current on and off-ramps in emerging markets force double FX hits when moving local money on-chain through dollar stablecoins. Solution: structuring ramps to hold local reserves and settle over local bank rails, matching currency denominations so users pay FX only when crossing a currency boundary intentionally, not just to access the network. Etherfuse and AirTM are implementing this approach in Mexico and Brazil. Markets need four things to be competitive: local currency assets, access to local payment rails, deep liquidity, and open access to developer APIs.
